Published in the
Orange County Register on March 24, 2014. To access the original article,
click here.
The
1994 Budapest Treaty guarantees the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The
signatories, who are bound to implement that treaty, include Russia, Ukraine,
the United States, France, Great Britain and China. While Russia dismembers
Ukraine, there is little the other signatories are doing about it.
President
Barack Obama promised “consequences” if Russia seized the Ukraine. Secretary of
State John Kerry said the U.S. would have no choice except to “isolate Russia,
politically, diplomatically and economically.” This isolation consists of
sanctions against a bank, as well as a handful of Russian and Ukrainian
‘cronies’ of Vladimir Putin. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin
posted his contempt: “Comrade Obama, what should those who have neither
accounts nor property abroad [do]? Or [you] didn’t think about it?”
The
NATO alliance is taking stronger measures, deploying Airborne Warning and
Control Systems and fighter aircraft to Poland and Romania. They also have
promised to send trainers to the newly formed Ukrainian army and national
guard. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, however, and the NATO powers have
little appetite to challenge the Russian nuclear superpower over a country that
is not an alliance member. The organization is as hamstrung as Russia was in
the 1990s as NATO expanded to the Russian border against Kremlin wishes.
The
EU has issued its own sanctions, as weak as the American ones. The EU’s hands
are tied by their need for Russian oil and natural gas. Should Russia be
angered enough to cut the energy flows, as they did in 2006 and 2009, Europe
has few alternative energy sources in the immediate future.
The
strongest economic power in the EU, Germany, is also the country with the
closest ties to the Kremlin. The German publication Der Spiegel pointed out an economic
war with Russia could cost the German economy 300,000 jobs. German-Russian
trade in 2013 was almost $107 billion and the 6,000 German companies registered
in Russia have foreign direct investment in that country of $27 billion.
Western
powers are considering boycotting the upcoming meeting of the G-8 in Sochi, in
favor of a London meeting of the G-7 (no Russia). In reality, however, Russia
never belonged in the same gathering as the G-7, which consists of the major
industrial powers in the world. Russia is not an industrial power, but a
country whose economy is based on the export of raw materials.
The
EU has also cancelled talks on the expansion of Russian pipelines in Europe.
This cancellation is less than meets the eye: EU Energy Commissioner Gunther
Oettinger admitted that while talks at the political level were cancelled,
technical negotiations continue.
China
has also traveled the long road from principles to accommodation. After
President Putin received Russian Duma approval to use military force in
Ukraine, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said its position must be based
on both principles and facts, taking into account the “history and complexity
of the issue.” China abstained in the vote on the Russian-vetoed, United
Nations Security Council resolution affirming the territorial integrity of
member state, Ukraine.
Ukraine
itself is frozen into inaction. Despite announcements that the army has been
mobilized and a 40,000 strong national guard created, Ukrainian soldiers are
under strict orders: they can only fire weapons in self defense. Interm
Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk gave a televised address to the
nation, in Russian, stating that accession to NATO is not on the agenda. This
meets a key Kremlin goal of a neutral Ukraine.
What’s
next? Russia has annexed the Crimea outright and continues to claim the right
to intervene in Ukraine to protect Russian citizens. President Putin has massed
80,000 Russian troops, 140 fighter jets, 90 combat helicopters, armored
personnel carriers and advanced missile systems on the Ukrainian border.
James J. Coyle,
Ph.D. is the Director of Global Education at Chapman University and is chair of
the Eurasian committee of the Pacific Council on International Policy.
