The decision appears to have been made based on a number of factors such as lower construction costs because of a shorter pipeline route, and higher gas prices in Southern Italy. Andrew Neff, an analyst with the Moscow market research firm IHS, said that a tipping point may have been the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR)'s purchase one week earlier of a majority stake in the Greek gas company Desfa. "This gives Azerbaijan a direct supply relationship with Greece," he commented.
The government of the United States welcomed the announcement. A statement issued by the US State Department called the choice "another important step in the process of advancing Europe's energy security and promoting competition in the supply of energy resources." European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso also expressed pleasure. "This is a shared success for Europe and a milestone in strengthening the energy security of our Union," he stated.
Western support has little to do with the amount of gas that will be delivered to Europe. At 6 bcm per year, TAP will only carry about 1% of European gas consumption. The financial rating company Fitch Ratings commented that the limited capacity meant TAP would probably not contribute any downward pressure on gas prices.
Rather, the importance of TAP, and the TANAP line to which it will be connected, is that it challenges Russia's hold on natural gas exports to Europe. US Heritage Foundation analyst Ariel Cohen called TAP an achievement, especially for Azerbaijan. "This is the first gas pipeline from the former Soviet Union that is not controlled by Russia," he said. "This is a precedent and a model for Europe to get gas by pipelines from the Caspian region or from other regions without the Russian control."
A country that will benefit substantially from the new pipeline is economically beleaguered Greece. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said the decision to use his nation as a transit zone was a vote of confidence in his country. Samaras issued a statement that TAP would invest 1.5 billion euros (approximately $2 billion dollars) in Greece to construct the pipeline, would generate 2,000 direct jobs, and an additional 10,000 jobs in companies that would be supporting the project. "After the TAP announcement, the 'disaster scenarios' for Greece and its exit from the euro definitely stop," he said.
