Featured in The Daily Caller on April 27, 2016. To access the original article, click here.
Hope for peace may be coming to the Caucasus. The
Holy See has announced Pope Francis has accepted the invitation of the
Catholicos of all Armenians, His Holiness Karekin II, to visit Armenia in June.
The pope is also scheduled to visit Georgia and Azerbaijan on September
30-October 2 at the invitation of the governments of those states.
The papal visits could not come at a
more important time. On April 2, fighting in the Nagorno-Karabakh region of
Azerbaijan broke out on the contact line between Azerbaijani and Armenian
forces. Over 75 soldiers and many civilians were killed in the worst outbreak
of violence since the two sides signed a ceasefire in 1994. The Minsk group,
and two of its co-chairs France and the United States, failed to restore the
peace. The only effective movement was from the third co-chair, Russia, acting
in a unilateral capacity. This is unfortunate.
The Minsk group is the negotiating body
charged by the international community to negotiate a peace between the two
sides. While it is strong in international representation, its influence is
weak in the region. The outline of that peace has been known — and accepted by
the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia — since 2007. The “Madrid Principles”
call for the following:
- Return of the territories surrounding
Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani control;
- An interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh
providing guarantees for security and self-governance;
- a corridor linking Armenia to
Nagorno-Karabakh;
- future determination of the final legal status
of Nagorno-Karabakh through a legally binding expression of will;
- the right of all internally displaced persons
and refugees to return to their former places of residence; and
- international security guarantees that would
include a peacekeeping operation.
Russia has considerable weight in the
area. It owns a large, 5000-man military base in Armenia, and sells weapons to
both Armenia and Azerbaijan. “Beyond all doubt, we are interested — maybe more
than the other foreign partners of these two countries — in this conflict being
settled as soon as possible,” said Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.
Russia carries considerable baggage,
however; primarily because of its support to separatists in neighboring
Georgia, as well as in Moldova and Ukraine. The West should share the
diplomatic lead, because Western interests are at stake. The area is a
geopolitical tinderbox: wedged between Turkey, Russia and Iran, this area
could easily become a proxy war between any of these contending forces. Oil and
gas pipelines running from Azerbaijan westwards bypassing both Russia and Iran
offer Europe an alternative to the Russian energy monopoly. The countries are
an easy day’s drive from Moscow, and sit astride the new Silk Road to Central
Asia.
A lasting peace will not be easy to
achieve. Negotiators have been arguing about various interpretations of the
Madrid principles for almost a decade. The problem is a lack of mutual trust
between the two sides. The current generation of fighters has inherited the
conflict from their forbearers.
The current conflict began in 1988, in
the ashes of the imploding Soviet Union. Fighting killed 30,000, and displaced
almost a million, mostly Azerbaijanis. Both sides have suffered: Azerbaijan has
lost 20 percent of its internationally recognized territory, and Armenia has
lost the chance to share in the area’s economic development. The energy
pipeline, whose most direct route from the Caspian would have taken it through
Armenia, was routed through Georgia. Today, Georgia collects money from the
State Oil Company of Azerbaijan in two forms: transit fees and tax revenues
from the country’s largest taxpayer. By contrast, Armenia had to sell its
energy distribution network to the Russians, to stay financially afloat.
The United States and France need to be
more actively involved to protect the West’s interests in the peace process.
Lacking any movement from the White House or the Elysee Palace, however,
a visit from the Supreme Pontiff of the Roman Catholic Church is a good second
choice.
